- Accepting the proposal of far-right Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland), the ruling Fidesz majority has changed the capital’s electoral system, meaning that representatives will now enter the General Assembly of Budapest based on the results of a party-list election (as opposed to the former system where it was mostly the elected district mayors who made it into the assembly).
- This has resulted in a completely new situation among the opposition parties. Green party LMP (Lehet Más a politika, “Politics Can Be Different”), whose opposition status is questioned by some among Fidesz’s opponents, and liberal-centrist Momentum are both considering separate lists, which could have a fundamental impact on the opposition’s performance. (Even A Nép Pártján (“On the People’s Side”, former Jobbik chief Péter Jakab’s new formation) has expressed interest in the idea of running on a separate list.)
- There is serious debate within Momentum about whether separate participation is a good strategy.
- The mayor’s situation is also complicated. For now it is uncertain which list Gergely Karácsony is to lead, if any – currently, he is trying to persuade the parties to join a mutual list.
- For many, mere survival is at stake, while others aim to strengthen their positions. However, an expert is drawing attention to the danger of wasted opposition votes.
- What motivates the opposition parties? What are their considerations and interests? This is what we were trying to get a picture of during our background discussions.
In December, opposition parties held a meeting at the City Hall that lasted barely fifteen minutes. Every party from the past election’s united opposition was present with the exception of right-wing Jobbik, which withdrew from the cooperation last year. In other words, the meeting was held by representatives from MSZP (Hungarian Socialist Party), DK (Democratic Coalition, centre-left party founded by former MSZP-leader and prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsány) LMP, Párbeszéd (Dialogue, progressive green party) and Momentum. According to our sources, the main reason for the brief discussion was the inability of the parties to reach consensus even on the most fundamental issues, such as the question of separate versus joint lists. During the meeting, both LMP and Momentum indicated their consideration of running on separate lists. A question was directed at Mayor Karácsony regarding what list he is intending to lead, and whether he would be willing to head a “mini-cooperation” meaning a DK-MSZP-Párbeszéd mutual list. However, as our source has put it, “Gergő skillfully evaded the question, leaving it to hang in the air.”
As the parties did not reach a phase of actual negotiations, and “no one made any promises” going forward, the participants agreed to meet again in mid-January, in hopes that the number of open questions would reduce somewhat by then.
However, no such meeting has taken place since, and the situation is not any less unclear. Our sources find this worrisome as in 2019 – when the united opposition secured a majority in the assembly and won the position of mayor – MSZP, DK, Párbeszéd, and Momentum had already reached an agreement on the majority of joint district mayoral candidates in April, six months before the election. Jobbik and LMP were left out of this agreement (the latter was flirting with the idea of supporting Róbert Puzsér), and although LMP eventually joined the common opposition list, the party did not manage to get any candidates onto the joint mayoral lists. Consequently, no LMP representative entered the Budapest Assembly. This neglect also plays a role in LMP’s current politics – a topic we will come back to.
However, the 2019 agreement is a bitter memory for Momentum as well. According to several accounts, a poor series of negotiations has left them underrepresented in the assembly: despite being the second-strongest party in Budapest – just behind the Democratic Coalition – as per the results of the 2019 European Parliament elections, today they have only one mayor in the 23 districts of Budapest (Tamás Soproni in District VI (Terézváros), after District IV’s (Újpest) Tibor Déri switched to DK mid-term; and while András Pikó, leading District VIII (Józsefváros), belongs to Momentum’s faction, he is not a member of the party).
However, past grievances were not the only reason the December meeting at the City Hall did not reach a resolution. Since Fidesz-KDNP passed Mi Hazánk’s proposal to transform the electoral system of Budapest in November, voters in Budapest can once again vote for party lists, meaning that the assembly’s composition (and whether there will be a majority behind the mayor) is no longer determined by the identity of the district mayors, but the number of votes cast for these lists. This change poses unexpected dilemmas for both parties and individual politicians.
District IX’s (Ferencváros) independent mayor, Krisztina Baranyi, also discussed this issue in an interview with 24.hu: “This is a dilemma for me as well. Being represented in the General Assembly is in the District’s interests in several ways, but that would require me to get onto a party list.
Several parties have approached me, asking to be on their list. However, I haven’t made a decision yet – I’m weighing my options.
(In the 2019 preliminary election, Baranyi was supported by LMP and MKKP (Magyar Kétfarkú Kutyapárt, “Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party”, a joke party that has turned somewhat serious in recent years), while the rest of the parties involved would have preferred a candidate from Momentum.)
This means that the opposition parties not only need to agree on who the mayoral candidates will be – in order to avoid running against each other, as this would increase the chances of the ruling party – but also on how many lists to run on. Moreover, in case of a shared list, the parties involved need to determine the allocation of candidate spots they presume to be voted into the assembly. All in an environment rife with conflicting interests among parties that theoretically play on the same field. Not to mention new, smaller players who had less support than now back in 2019, such as MKKP and Mi Hazánk, or then-nonexistent A Nép Pártján and Mindenki Magyarországa Néppárt (Everyone’s Hungary People’s Party, a centre-right party founded by the former prime ministerial candidate of the united opposition, Péter Márki-Zay).
The assembly consists of 33 members, one of whom is the mayor. Therefore, opposition parties – depending on MKKP’s success – need to agree on the allocation of 15-20 seats. What complicates this situation is that no one wants to have fewer seats than they have now, whereas Momentum wants many more.
Momentum leaning towards a separate list
According to our sources, it is Momentum where there’s the most significant debate regarding the question of shared versus separate lists. The main driver of the conflict is that the political direction announced by Anna Donáth last autumn clearly supports a separate list, as it builds on criticism against Ferenc Gyurcsány and the Democratic Coalition. And while Donáth is not yet the party’s president, she will be by January, and it would be difficult to explain why a party under her leadership would run on the same list with Gyurcsány’s formation despite considering their politics dishonest and harmful. Due to the party’s leadership renewal assembly at the end of January, the internal discussions within Momentum are unlikely to reach a decision regarding the list issue until early February.
An independent list is further supported by the fact that it would mean that Momentum won’t be forced into the kind of bargaining positions and negotiation processes in which the party has not fared too well in recent years (not only referring to the 2019 municipal elections but also the 2021 pre-elections). Should Momentum opt for a joint list, the party is expected to contend with the negotiating dominance of the Democratic Coalition.
However, Donáth’s strategy is at odds with Momentum’s realm on the municipal level (as highlighted by the case of Baja’s mayor leaving the party), for example with the views of District VI mayor Tamás Soproni. Sharing the opinion of several other mayoral candidates and local politicians, Soproni advocates running together, especially in districts where there is a realistic chance of defeating Fidesz. “The simpler the question is for the voters, the better our situation” – says another Momentum politician in favour of cooperation. We also spoke with a parliamentary representative from another party who claimed to have been approached by municipal-level Momentum politicians, asking him to “convince Anna and the others about running together. This is somewhat absurd.”
Momentum’s Miklós Hajnal evaluated the situation as follows: “The current situation is not ideal; we should already be campaigning in every district. The issue of a common list dragged on for months before the 2022 elections, and right now we don’t even have our mayoral candidates, so we are not too well off in that regard.”
The majority of arguments within Momentum point in the direction of a separate list, especially if it’s possible to have both a separate list as well as joint candidates.
This latter question is still being examined by the parties. For example, in case, say, DK and Momentum are to run on separate lists in a district where they nonetheless share the mayoral candidate, it is uncertain whether the ballot could have both party emblems next to said candidate. To our knowledge, this issue is a legal grey zone, although it is possible that the new law does not allow parties running on separate lists to have joint candidacies in individual districts.
However, all this does not stand in the way of shared campaigning. And while some have stated that they are uncertain regarding the impact party emblems have on votes, everyone agrees that the best scenario for both mayoral and individual assembly candidates is to have the ballot feature as many opposition party emblems as possible next to their names.
LMP tired of disdain
We will no longer play the role of the ‘tolerated cousin’.
That is how LMP co-president Péter Ungár expressed this sentiment in an interview with 24.hu. We inquired what strategic considerations they follow when flirting with the idea of running a separate list with Dávid Vitézy as mayoral candidate for Budapest. To his former statement, he adds: “In 2010, even Gergely Karácsony considered a separate LMP list a good idea, and I still think so today. To me the polls suggest that we are confidently self-sufficient, and the candidacy of Dávid Vitézy could get us a significant presence in the assembly. The former secretary of state for transport, who left Orbán’s government in November 2022, has not yet accepted LMP’s candidacy. Before his role in the government, back during István Tarlós’ time as Budapest’s Mayor, Dávid Vitézy headed the capital’s public transport system (BKK).
As mentioned, LMP currently has no representatives in the Budapest Assembly. This situation is partly attributed to the fact that in 2019 (following the Puzsér-affair and the meagre EP election result of 2.18%), LMP was the last to join the opposition cooperation and was unable to secure a district for itself. However, the green party believes that the numbers do not justify their disadvantageous position. They claim their support in Budapest to be no lower than that of Párbeszéd or MSZP – with the former having two representatives in the assembly alongside the mayor, and the latter having five. The party also hopes that Vitézy’s candidacy could boost the results of LMP’s list (potentially making the party a deciding factor in the assembly) – the question remains why all this would be in Vitézy’s interest, as running as an independent candidate (perhaps backed by civil organisations) might not alienate him as much from Fidesz voters as leading an opposition party list.
Nevertheless, it is not ruled out that LMP may join forces with other parties on a common list: this would be the likely outcome in case the Vitézy-project fails. However, this can only become reality if they secure a (presumably) winning spot on the list. If this version comes to fruition, LMP and Párbeszéd could once again find themselves side by side on the ballot, even as the latter regularly questions LMP’s identity as an opposition party.
Karácsony and the rest: who’s hitting a dead end?
It’s not by chance that Gergely Karácsony did not take a position in December on whether he would lead a smaller list or if he is only interested in a complete cooperation. The mayor, understandably so, would prefer to lead the broadest possible coalition and needs the support of Momentum, in addition to DK, MSZP, and Párbeszéd.
According to multiple sources, the mayor is working behind the scenes to ensure Momentum’s participation in the joint list. According to a left-wing politician, Karácsony “must not be soft” and may need to “blackmail” Momentum onto the list involving the public if need be.
He is the most popular politician in Budapest, he has influence and authority within the opposition, he has resources, yet he does not use them,
our source complains.
Karácsony would finally heed the call last Thursday: in an open letter, he advocated for the parties currently forming the capital’s opposition coalition – namely DK, Momentum, MSZP, and Párbeszéd – to run together, while also indicating his willingness to lead this list. While the message is primarily directed at Momentum, the mayor noted that “the parties leading the city should be open to LMP’s participation, while LMP should decide whether it wants to be part of this collaboration or run separately everywhere.” He also suggested that the parties should propose “a fair and moderate cooperation” to MKKP. Regarding the issue of district-level mayoral candidates, Budapest’s mayor expects an agreement by mid-February, stating that in places where this is not achieved, primary elections should be held in the days following March 15.
An opposition politician says the best solution would be for as many parties as possible to stand behind Karácsony because “any other version is difficult to explain to voters. If Momentum ultimately runs on a separate list, then why won’t their emblem be there next to Karácsony’s name despite supporting him? I think this sends a bad message and is one more reason not to fall for Fidesz’s tricks. Not to mention that in the end, a separate list creates a competitive situation among opposition parties. But to criticise and attack each other in a campaign in which we share both the Budapest mayoral candidate and the main goal of defeating Fidesz? This is very confusing and does not serve vote maximization.”
This is the problem that the creation of an umbrella organisation, as suggested by several of our sources as a possibility, would solve. However, this option does not enjoy unanimous popularity. “Let’s not take voters for idiots! What difference does it make if the parties create an organisation? Momentum will still collaborate with Gyurcsány’s DK all the same, even if it’s not outright apparent on paper, but everyone will know who stands behind the list” – exclaimed an opposition representative.
Ágnes Kunhalmi, co-president of MSZP, tells 24.hu:
DK simply states that they support the idea of a shared list; no one from the party wanted to elaborate any further. Not without reason, as many details still pose unresolved questions for them as well: how many seats should they give up for smaller parties on the joint list? Is it worth having a joint list if they could potentially secure more seats independently? And why bring in other parties to the assembly if they wouldn’t make it on their own?
A Nép Pártján may also run, Márki-Zay’s party will not have a list
What is already certain is that MKKP will run a separate list in Budapest, much like Jobbik (this only requires three district-level mayoral candidates), but Péter Jakab’s A Nép Pártján is also planning to participate with their own list. To our inquiry regarding the issue, the party replied: “A Nép Pártján will typically run separately in districts where opposition parties are to collaborate with Jobbik, which regularly tends to backstab opposition voters. This could also result in our party having its own list in Budapest. However, it’s important to stress that we will not field a candidate opposing Gergely Karácsony. Budapest is an important symbol, we cannot let Fidesz return.”
Péter Márki-Zay, former leader of the 2022 opposition coalition has told our paper that his Mindenki Magyarországa Néppárt will not field a mayoral candidate. Márki-Zay’s party will support Karácsony, and they will not have their own list for the capital, either – however, it is possible that they might have their own candidates in certain districts; and in districts with multiple candidates, they propose holding primaries.
Wasted votes – the dangers of separate lists
According to a study by Závecz Research, statistical margins of error (among other factors) make it impossible to determine which of the parties hovering around 5% might enter the municipal assembly with a separate list. DK and Momentum are sure to make the cut on their own, while the odds also seem to be in MKKP’s favour. The situation of Mi Hazánk and LMP is much more uncertain, while MSZP and Párbeszéd do not plan to run independently.
Róbert László, Political Capital’s election expert says:
The new-old municipal election system also favours larger formations to some extent, so it is not surprising that the much-desired cooperation could even bring one more mandate to the opposition parties, on paper. Meaning that the same amount of votes would result in one more mandate if the five parties (DK–MSZP–Párbeszéd–Momentum–LMP) are to run together, as opposed to the situation in which only the first three have a joint list, while Momentum and LMP run independently. However, this is by no means certain; various voting ratios can be produced that would result in exactly the same number of mandates under both line-ups. There is not much merit in such speculation. A more important risk factor is that the more parties there are that run independently, the more votes are likely to go to waste: this is what awaits any ballots cast for parties that fall under the 5% threshold.
The expert adds that the ability of each candidacy line-up to attract voters will matter more than election mathematics. “However, this is very difficult to measure. In a public opinion poll, most respondents would not be able to say for sure how they would behave in each scenario. Moreover, it makes predictions even more difficult that for the first time, the election will present voters with two separate list ballots – one for EP and one for municipal elections – so the possibility of dividing one’s vote remains an option until the very last moment. Due to the multitude of uncertainties, pollsters will have an even more difficult time in the next five months than usual.
Uncertainties abound
And all these dilemmas concern list formation alone, while more and more questions arise regarding district-level issues as well. The possibility of primary elections in individual districts is decreasing week by week – running out of time is not the only factor; the difficult financial situation of opposition parties also plays a significant role. They still await notification regarding a portion of the 2022 election penalty; therefore, they still don’t know the exact amount of funds available for campaigning.
It is currently unpredictable whether the amendment passed in December will bring success in terms of mandates and positions in Budapest for the ruling parties (Fidesz-KDNP), or whether it will get Mi Hazánk a mandate, as the party would not stand a chance under the election regulations that applied in 2019. As Róbert László had concluded earlier, the main goal was most likely to prevent a stable majority behind Karácsony in the General Assembly, even in case he wins the mayoral election.
Several of our sources couldn’t rule out the worst-case scenario, in which a domino-effect would see every opposition party run separately in June. An MSZP politician lamented that while this year’s Budapest elections could have been something truly great, in the end the results may turn out rather underwhelming.
