Beginning with the first quarter of 1999, economic development slowed down essentially as a result of a decrease in industrial activity – more specifically because of the significant decline of duty free zones exports from. Diminishing agricultural and construction industry outputs, as well as the slowing development rate of transportation and communication, are also behind the slump to a lesser degree. Having lost both internal and external markets, duty free zones practically stagnating and has consequently been unable to stimulate economic growth in 1999.
According to the most recent estimates, nominal GDP was 10,21 trillion HUF in 1998. With an inflation rate of about 10 percent – taking in account a 0,5 percent smaller GDP deflater and 4 percent real growth – nominal GDP could reach 11,60 trillion forints in 1999.
Signs of worldwide economic growth now provide the Hungarian economy with a more favorable environment for development than before. While inflation is slowing down, corporate investments are likely to increase and exports are expected to grow dynamically. In the wake of European economic recovery, private sector demand is intensifying and will probably do even better in 2000. The decreasing net resource requirements of the budget ensure that the expansion of the private sector is not going to have a negative impact on the current account balance. One of the conditions of achieving an economic growth rate of more than 5 percent is that the pressure on the current account be balanced by a decrease in the structural deficit of the budget. Economic participants show clear signs of confidence that the rate of inflation will continue to fall. As an indication of lasting economic growth, to the domestic labor force is growing faster than expected. –
TÖRÖK ATTILA, a Postabank Értékpapír Rt. vezető közgazdásza: “Pozitív fejleménynek tartom, hogy a költségvetési törvény fiskális szigorításokat tartalmaz. Jó hír az is, hogy a regulált árak növekedését 6 százalék alatt akarja tartani a kormány. A folyó fizetési mérleg hiánya a tavalyi szint közelében alakulhat, ami minden korábbi várakozásnál kedvezőbb. A működő tőke beáramlási üteme lassult, de 1,5-2,0 milliárd forintos szinten stabilizálódik. Az Európai Unió gazdasági bővülése gyorsabb lesz, mint Amerikáé, ennek köszönhetően a befektetők figyelme is egyre inkább Európa felé irányul, ami a magyar részvénypiacot is erősíteni fogja. “
