The budget closed with a surplus in October and thus its deficit fell to 96 percent of the expected annual 438,1 billion HUF from the 106 percent of the previous month. The central budget had a surplus of 18 billion HUF. Consumption tax revenues amounted to 40 billion HUF, while sales tax revenues provided the budget with 115 billion HUF. Although November and December figures cannot bring about a fundamental change, they could still modify the preliminary statistics. The budget deficit will be higher this year than the 4 percent expected by the government – reaching about 4,5-4,6 percent of GDP.
During the first three quarters of the year the current account deficit reached a total 1288 million USD, 48 million USD lower than a year before. The 1962 million USD foreign capital inflow covers this deficit, however, one must keep in mind that these are mainly portfolio investments. The current account deficit will be less than the earlier expected 2,8 billion USD – around 2,0-2,2 billion USD – dynamic machine industry exports playing a decisive factor in that. Machine exports went up 25 percent this year, an exceptionally high increase even by European Union statistics.
Within services the negative balance of the so-called other services’ rose 32 million USD to a total of 661 million. Other’ services also include the covert profit exports of international companies. Foreign affiliates formally order services and thus export locally made profit not as – taxable – dividends but as contract fees. While the balance of these services had a surplus of 138 million USD in 1996, in September 1999 the above-mentioned 661 million USD deficit was already 10 percent higher than that of the entire previous year. –
OBLATH GÁBOR, a Kopint-Datorg Rt. kutatási igazgatója: “A jövő évi költségvetés rendkívül szigorú: a kamatfizetésekkel és a nyugdíjreform hatásával korrigált (elsődleges) többlet a GDP 2,6 százaléka. A belső arányok hasonlítanak az ideiek tervezetéhez, de mivel a várható teljesítés eltér a tervtől, a jövőre beruházásra költhető összeg számottevően emelkedhet. Az államháztartásban sok a szerkezeti probléma, de a deficitek előre jelzett mértéke fenntartható: az államadóság GDP-hez viszonyított aránya 2005-ig 50 százalék alá is kerülhet.”
