Az Ecostat előrejelzése szerint 2001-ben – 5 százalék fölötti gazdasági növekedést és változatlan exportdinamikát feltételezve – a folyó fizetési mérleg hiánya 2,2 milliárd euró körül lesz.#Forecasts – Staying in good shape
If economic growth exceeds 5 percent and foreign trade dynamics remain unchanged, the current accounts deficit will be about 2.2 billion euros in 2001 – states the economic forecast made by Ecostat. The growth rate of foreign trade will slow and imports, as a result of fast-growing domestic demand, are likely to rise faster than exports. This pushes the trade deficit up to the point that it appears in the accounts balance as well. In order to avoid increasing Hungary’s external indebtedness, portfolio investments should be encouraged. These deficits, however, will threaten neither the sustainability of economic growth, nor fiscal balance. The expected slower growth rate is, on the one hand, the result of bearish export markets, and increasing domestic consumption on the other. The general budget deficit is expected to be about 3.5 percent of the GDP in 2001, essentially the same as the year before.
Industrial output will not show outstanding growth but is still going to be rather sturdy. Industries (such as trade and construction) that react favorably to expanding domestic demand will have slightly improving prospects in the coming year. Although agriculture is not likely to repeat last year’s plunge, production levels are bound to stay low – to fight declining production the industry would need significantly higher state subsidies. Thanks to good corporate results and investment-stimulating measures, investments are expected to rise 6 percent in 2001.
The deflation rate may also increase. During the first quarter the annual inflation rate is likely to remain in the two-digit range, but starting the second half of 2001, it is expected to drop considerably and will probably be around 8 percent for the entire year. Unemployment will further decrease, while the labor force is likely to grow stronger. Gross wages will probably rise more markedly than last year, with real wages ending up about 4 percent higher than the year before. The savings rate will continue to be low, while consumption is expected to be 5 percent up.